All top goalscorers go through runs of good and bad form – even Lionel Messi has an off day, just not that often.
But some superstars, despite their impressive goal tallies don’t hit the back of the net as often as they should, while others get way more than they realistically should.
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Barcelona ace Lionel Messi celebrates scoring against Atletico Madrid.
It’s no surprise Barcelona ace Messi out performs most statistical models so expected goals (xG) is no match for the astonishingly good Argentine.
Since 2014/15, he’s netted 173 league goals but, according to OPTA’s xG model he should only have 131.78 – still a good number but to get 41.22 goals more is a sign of true greatness, especially given it’s over a period of four-and-a-half seasons.
But what about the rest of the top 30 goalscorers in Europe? Find out who over and under perform their expected goals total below.
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What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
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How the top 30 goalscorers in Europe compare to their ‘Expected Goals’.
Which strikers are over/under performing their expected goals, including Messi, Kane, Salah, and Ronaldo REVEALED Some superstars exceed their xG while others aren't getting the goals they should All top goalscorers go through runs of good and bad form - even Lionel Messi has an off day, just not that often.
European Football Top Scorers 2017/2018 - eurorivals
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REVEALED Some superstars exceed their xG while others aren't getting the goals they should All top goalscorers go through runs of good and bad form - even Lionel Messi has an off day, just not that often. But some superstars, despite their impressive goal tallies don't hit the back of the net as often as […]
January 2019: Analyzing Europes Top Goalscorers - BetSoccer.ca
Top goalscorers in Europe: Which strikers are over/under performing their expected goals, including Messi, Kane, Salah, and Ronaldo Some superstars exceed their xG while others aren't getting
Top goalscorers in Europe: Which strikers are over/under
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Top goalscorers in Europe: Which strikers are over/under performing their expected goals, including Messi, Kane, Salah, and Ronaldo by: 161385360554578 — Talk Sport 9 Apr All top goalscorers go through runs of good and bad form - even Lionel Messi has an off day, just not that often.
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Top goalscorers in Europe: Which strikers are over/under performing their expected goals, including Messi, Kane, Salah, and Ronaldo by: 161385360554578 — Talk Sport 9 Apr All top goalscorers go through runs of good and bad form - even Lionel Messi has an off day, just not that often.
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Top goalscorers in Europe: Which strikers are over/under
Well the main thing is the top strikers are really, really good. Some players in the second half of the season will improve. Mainly Aguero, Suarez, Ronaldo and Salah. They actual goals scored is currently below their expected goals value. Top strikers like that will usually always end up with a higher goals scored total than expected goals.
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International appearances: 23 (12 goals). Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani were Portugal's joint top goalscorers at the country's successful UEFA Euro 2016 tournament — however, a new player is
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